We can joke all we want about the NFC Least (5-18-1 combined with three of those wins coming against each other, so an even worse 2-15-1 against everyone else), but we’re still going to be watching (and betting) the Giants at the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, right?
The Eagles are 1-4-1 and just half a game behind the Cowboys (2-4) while the Giants (barely) picked up their first win, 20-19, over Washington, but are only one game back. So, while it won’t be football at its highest level, we should still see a competitive game.
Last week’s advance line for this game was as high as Eagles -7 before sinking as low as -3.5 earlier this week, but is now on the way back up and was mostly Eagles -4.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. We believe it’s moving back in the right direction because we think the Eagles are the right side off an upset of the 49ers, a late non-cover at Pittsburgh and, this past Sunday, a cover in a 30-28 loss versus the Ravens.
If you still want to back the Giants, we don’t put too much stock into the win over the Football Team from Washington (hey, has anyone else mentioned that Steve Spurrier, the “Head Ball Coach” should come back to coach the Football Team?), but they were also more competitive than expected in earlier losses to the Bears, Rams and Cowboys. However, we would recommend waiting to see if the line goes even higher before kickoff.
Having said all that, the better bet looks like the Under. Like the spread, the Over/Under opened higher at 45 at most books and early sharp money bet it down as low as 43.5 but now it’s back up to 45 as of Wednesday afternoon. We believe the early money was correct, especially due to our original point that these players still believe they have a chance for a playoff spot and should be giving a top effort.
The Giants’ offense is only averaging 16.8 points per game, while the Eagles are averaging 23.5. Granted, the Giants are allowing 25.3 points per game while the Eagles are giving up 29.2, but those are skewed by the Cowboys and 49ers piling up 37 and 36 points, respectively, on the Giants while the Eagles gave up 38 to the Steelers and 30 to the Ravens.
Neither of these two offenses is as explosive as any of those teams, plus Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz both have more interceptions than touchdown passes. In fact, we think the only thing that could cause this game to go Over the total is if the quarterbacks turn the ball over and we get the defenses scoring touchdowns on scoop-and-scores or pick sixes or setting up the other team’s offense with short fields. Again, wait to see if the public bets this higher.
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