Welcome back! It’s the middle of the week and a perfect time to hit the PrizePicks MLB board.
A St. Louis pitcher getting the call from AAA to battle the Brewers will headline my picks for Wednesday.
Let’s find out why.
Must be at least 18 years of age and within applicable state (AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, KS, KY, MA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, VT, VA, WI, WY, DC). Full Terms and Conditions apply.
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First time deposits only. 18+. Must be located in eligible states (AK, AR, CA, FL, GA, IL, KS, KY, MA, MN, NE, NM, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, VT, WI, WY, DC) for the duration of a contest. Full terms and conditions apply.
Must be at least 18 years of age and within applicable state (AL, AK, AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, ME, MA, MI, MN, MS, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WI, WY). Full terms and conditions apply.
New users only, 18+. AK, AR, CA, FL, GA, IL, KS, KY, MA, MI, MN, NE, NH, NM, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, WI, WY, DC only. Full terms and conditions apply.
First time deposits only. 18+. Must be located in eligible states (AK, AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, KS, KY, ME, MA, MN, NE, NH, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, WV, WI, WY) for the duration of a contest. Full terms and conditions apply.
21+. New customers only. AL, AK, AR, CA, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, ME, MN, MS, NE, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, VT, VA, WI, WY, DC only. T&C apply
Matthew Liberatore more than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Liberatore has been a highly touted left-handed pitching prospect with St. Louis for a few years.
He had a brief, uninspiring cup of coffee with St. Louis in 2022 but has been taking care of business at AAA Memphis this season.
Milwaukee is terrible against southpaws this season, which was made evident by Cardinals lefty Jordan Montgomery striking out seven Brewers in just 5.1 innings on Tuesday.
It totally makes sense to call up Liberatore in a spot where he should have a real chance to build confidence and succeed.
Milwaukee owns the second-lowest batting average (.218) and the fourth-most strikeouts against left-handed pitchers this season.
It hasn’t been all sunshine and butterflies for Liberatore, but across all levels, he’s averaging just over a strikeout per inning. So I think he can get us 5+ strikeouts here today.
Spencer Strider more than 9.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Strider has followed up a sensational breakout year by delivering more of the same jaw-dropping stuff we saw every fifth day in 2022.
Strider is striking out an absurd 42% of batters this season.
While that number is unsustainable for most, walks and pitch counts (from striking everyone out) have been his only two issues as a pro.
Home/road splits also check another box in this matchup.
Strider has historically pitched better at home, while the visiting Rangers have been much better offensively at their home park in Texas.
There are seven Rangers hitters in their projected lineup that strike out at least 20% of the time, which is good enough for me with the Braves ace on the mound.
Strider has failed to strike out at least nine batters only once this season. I like him tonight at home.
Marco Gonzales less than 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
I don’t think quite highly of Gonzales as a pitcher, but especially not on the road at Fenway.
Dating back to 2022, Gonzales owns a 5.29 xFIP and just a 13% strikeout rate.
He was much worse on the road last year, with a 4.84 ERA (compared to 3.58 at home), while striking out just over half a batter per inning on the road.
I can’t see that getting the job done against Boston, which is projected to roll out a lineup that collectively strikes out less than 20% of the time.
Fenway as a venue is a big deal, it’s a great park for offense and Gonzales pitches to contact.
There are plenty of opportunities for him to get into trouble pitching to contact on Wednesday at this venue.
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Steven Kwan less than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts
This appears to be an elite matchup for Kwan, who is an elite contact hitter in general.
Mike Clevinger will take the mound for the White Sox, who owns a putrid 15% strikeout rate and a 12% walk rate against left-handed batters this season.
He is throwing almost 60% fastballs to lefties.
Kwan, a lefty hitter, is striking out less than 10% of the time against right-handed pitching this season and owns a very solid 12% walk rate against them.
According to our database, Kwan has a massive BBE (batted-ball event) sample size against right-handed fastballs, sporting an incredible 95.74% contact rate.
Kwan should be in a favorable spot for however long Clevinger remains in the game on Wednesday.
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